Disclosure of e-mails and documents from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) in Britain -- a collaborator with the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change -- reveals some scientists' willingness to suppress or massage data and rig the peer-review process and the publication of scholarly work. The CRU materials also reveal paranoia on the part of scientists who believe that in trying to engineer "consensus" and alarm about warming, they are a brave and embattled minority. Actually, never in peacetime history has the government-media-academic complex been in such sustained propagandistic lockstep about any subject.Commentary. Pretty much – but better said – the point I made recently in Climate change science going the way of Piltdown Man. The Post and former Vice President Al Gore wants us to believe that dissent from the climate-change orthodoxy originates mostly from benighted right-wing Republican “deniers” intent on defaming good, upright, and eminently rational scientific consensus that has all the facts at their disposal.
The Post learns an odd lesson from the CRU materials: "Climate scientists should not let themselves be goaded by the irresponsibility of the deniers into overstating the certainties of complex science or, worse, censoring discussion of them." These scientists overstated and censored because they were "goaded" by skepticism?
Were their science as unassailable as they insist it is, and were the consensus as broad as they say it is, and were they as brave as they claim to be, they would not be "goaded" into intellectual corruption. Nor would they meretriciously bandy the word "deniers" to disparage skepticism that shocks communicants in the faith-based global warming community.
The e-mails have popped the credibility bubble of what Roger Pielke Sr. of the University of Colorado, has called “the climate oligarchy.” The e-mails point to collusion, suppressed data, special pleading, selective use of evidence, and character assassination. Suddenly I don’t think that I have all the facts, that the sober analysis of competing hypotheses has not taken place, that the global consensus often bandied about is a fallacy – a variation of ad populum argument – and that our nation cannot commit itself to irrevocable courses of actions based on compromised science.
This attitude of skepticism towards climate-change science – scientific and rational to the core, methinks – is often mocked by “Greens” and “brights” – of the Richard Dawkins kind – as backward, insensitive, and ignorant. Nothing’s further from the truth.
Like most right-thinking humans, I like to breath clean air, drink clean water, consume safe food, live in clean neighborhoods, etc. I too would like to cut our dependence on foreign oil, particularly from Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, by drilling more at home if necessary, by relying more on wind power and nuclear energy wherever viable, and by advancing “clean coal” technologies whenever possible. Care for the environment is necessary whether or not there is man-made global warming and who knows, it may be that by adopting those very measures climate change, though always inevitable, would be allowed to continue its course mostly undisturbed by human activity. In their rush to caricaturize and ridicule climate-change skeptics, the climate oligarchy has glossed over the many aspirations we hold in common.
Furthermore, I don’t deny that man has affected the environment and at times, very negatively. Man has been a factor, well, since the dawn of man. But I don’t think that human civilization has been the sole factor in climate change, or that it’s even the principal factor in global warming. This strikes me as a narrow reduction and oversimplification of manifold processes, many of them poorly understood. This oversimplification has given birth of a politics of a certain kind that I believe inimical to the national interest – and also to the global interest – and given rise to a league of ladies and gentlemen whose word is to be taken unquestioningly as dogmas and oracles, becoming in fact pale caricatures of the One, True, Church in which, despite popular belief to the contrary, a healthy academic freedom to question and counterpropose competing hypotheses in all areas of human knowledge still endures.
George Will is right when he says that “never in peacetime history has the government-media-academic complex been in such sustained propagandistic lockstep about any subject.” Institutions that normally act as “reality-checkers” for each other have abdicated their responsibilities when it comes to global warming and climate change. Skepticism – the basis of modern science – is frowned upon. Powerful figures and institutions have a lot to lose in such a debate and are doing everything possible to stifle it. Fair play no longer exists in this process and debate is no longer open. Long-range public policy should not be build upon such a flimsy foundation.
And that’s where I stand. Thank you Mr. Will for confirming my views on this vital matter.










15 comments:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091212/ap_on_sc/climate_e_mails
I read it top to bottom a couple of hours ago.
It doesn't change my conclusion.
The climate oligarchy is not listening to alternate hypotheses; they can't be bothered to even consider them. The e-mails reveal an insider culture of contempt, falsification, and censorship. The AP article glosses over the implications. The e-mails are just the tip of the iceberg of hubris which has begun to melt - pun fully intended.
-Theo
I guess we should start somewhere else.
The question is: What evidence, or level of, would make you a believer in anthropogenic global warming?
Perhaps a better place to start is further back. It's not clear to me that there is even global warming in the first place, let alone man-made.
I mean global warming of an alarmist "ice-cap melting" scale that we hear so much on the news and in print. So far, I have seen no evidence or data that suggests that any warming, however slight, is inconsistent with the regular ebb and flow of global climate shifts.
Just 30 years ago, we were hearing how we were heading for an ice age and we had record snow falls and everyone was worried we were going to have glaciers again.
I didn't buy that then and I don't buy warming now.
Which brings me back to my original question:
What evidence, or level of, would make you a believer in anthropogenic (man made) global warming?
Which brings me back to my previous post: Please prove global warming first, then let's talk about cause.
However, I perceive that this may be the root of the problem. Most people I know who are convinced of global warming are also convinced that it's man made are also convinced that man is generally the biggest problem the planet faces are also convinced the world is overpopulated are also convinced we need population controls etc, etc, etc.
These lines of thinking all seem to go hand-in-hand are all equally unsubstantiated in the sense that zero equals zero.
So what if I said, "What evidence will prove to you that Blue Elephants are the cause of the current ice age?"
You would probably respond: "There are no such things as Blue Elephants and, at any rate, there is no current ice age"
So we can play this game all you want, but you must first prove the first assertion before proving the cause of that assertion.
I don't understand, you said yourself:
"So far, I have seen no evidence or data that suggests that any warming, however slight, is inconsistent with the regular ebb and flow of global climate shifts."
And yet you now say you don't believe in any type of warming at all?
I was basing my question on this comment. If there is such a thing as global warming, what evidence would make you believe that its man made and not "the regular ebb and flow of global climate shifts".
You're twisting my words. "Global Warming" implies that there is a warming that is out of the ordinary ebb and flow of natural climate shifts. So far, beneath all the alarmism and "green" profiteering going on, it's not clear that a few degrees here and there warmer or colder is out of the ordinary or unusual in any way.
There have been a few heat records set recently, but there have also been a few cold records set lately also.
And for heat records to be broken, there must've been a just-as-hot temperature at some point in the past to break in the first place. Several of the ones I've heard were from the late 19th century or from early 20th century.
So was there "Global Warming" back then? Was the world on the verge of melting the ice caps and all life perishing in a great inferno of desert heat back then?
Or is it that every few decades temperatures fluctuate due to dozens or hundreds of different natural factors?
So you first have to prove that any warming that's happening is out of the ordinary/unusual, and then you'd have to prove that man is a significant factor among all the other dozens/hundreds of natural factors.
Well, the warming is not the only factor that is unusual, the rate of warming also is.
While the globe does warm and cool throughout history, the earth is now the warmest it has ever been in the past 5 centuries and maybe even the past millennia.
Not only that, but past temperature changes normally take more than 5,000 years (the warming of the last ice age), while the current warming has taken about 50 years.
All this cannot be explained by natural phenomena (volcanoes for example) in climate models. But, when you add CO2 and aerosols to the models, they predict the current warming perfectly.
Related news and commentary:
- Top scientists rally to the defence of the Met Office
- I Pledge Allegiance to Global Warming
- Global Warming as a Political Tool
The question is: What evidence, or level of, would make you a believer in anthropogenic global warming?
Is there a "scale"? What is it? If you have a "level scale" to evaluate this evidence and therefore elicit reasonable "belief" in "anthropogenic global warming," please do let me know and I'll answer the question. I'm certainly not going to invent the scale to answer your question, to be fair, in the terms you asked the question.
Standing by for an answer.
-Theo
How can there be a scale? Do you have a scale to evaluate the evidence for belief in God? If there is such a scale, its tipping point is a personal matter. What I want to know is what is your tipping point.
There are only objectives facts and data and in your case, faith also holds some power.
I ask the question because I'm just wondering what kind of evidence is necessary to convince someone of this. If the current scientific data is not enough, what other data is necessary or missing? Is it possible to convince a global warming denier/skeptic? Am I just wasting my time?
I'm going to answer my question. I'm not a climatologist, so I rely on scientist in the field to reach a conclusion/consensus and inform me of these facts. Just like I believe in gravity because physicists agree at the moment that it is a fact, and I believe in evolution because biologists agree that it is a fact, I believe in AGW because climate scientists have looked at the data and agree that it is fact.
Do scientists make mistakes? Sure! Could they be wrong? Of course! They're humans and science is imperfect because the data is difficult to come by. But if there's one thing they do well is try to disprove themselves and I trust in this process, because it has worked so far and I will trust them until they are proven otherwise. Not by political attacks and arguments, but by data and facts.
When published peer reviewed papers come out in reputable journals showing that the current warming and its current rate can be caused by natural phenomenon, then I'd be more than happy to reconsider my position.
And no, arguing that "peer review and journals" are biased is not an argument.
I was merely trying to answer your question on your terms, not on mine. Very well then, I will use the standard of proof popular in murder trial instructions to juries: beyond a reasonable doubt.
Before the scandal broke through I would've been perfectly happy with "preponderance of the evidence," the standard of proof required in most civil cases.
But since now we have lies, deceit, special pleading, suppression of differing hypothesis, character assassinations, etc. etc., I'm gonna have to raise the standard to "beyond a reasonable doubt."
One more word. "Faith" is the certainty of things not seen, quite different from what Mark Twain said, btw. It's the intellect knowing objects without the need for sense evidence, even though there has been sense evidence - the absence of sense evidence has never been a requirement. This is very different from the intellectual assent required in the face of scientific fact. It's the same intellect operating in two different ways to gain real knowledge.
In the end, I won't "believe" the science, but assent to the evidence or better still, in your terms, I will "believe" the science but I will remain skeptical of the scientists and of the powerful political interests lining up behind the currently dominant climate-change narrative.
The process that you trust so much is the one that may have been corrupted by the malfeasance and hubris of the climate oligarchs; the only "faith" operative here is the one that you have in them.
-Theo
I'm gonna have to raise the standard to "beyond a reasonable doubt."
Then you will never believe in it. In science there is always "reasonable doubt". We believe in special relativity, yet it still doesn't explain quantum mechanics, so it might be incomplete or totally wrong. We believe in evolution, but there is always a door open for an alternative theory.
The same holds true for global warming. Yes, there might be other causes, but all the data points at it being anthropogenic, until proven otherwise.
PS. I have "faith" in the process of science, not in the scientists. Scientists are human after all.
Really? I'll tell the courts next time I'm summoned to serve as a juror.
FYI: "The level of certainty a juror must have to find a defendant guilty of a crime. A real doubt, based upon reason and common sense after careful and impartial consideration of all the evidence, or lack of evidence, in a case.
"Proof beyond a reasonable doubt, therefore, is proof of such a convincing character that you would be willing to rely and act upon it without hesitation in the most important of your own affairs. However, it does not mean an absolute certainty."
Try me again.
-Theo
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